As we mark the 20 years since the Harper government’s election, we take stock of the inflection point that reshaped Canada’s conservative movement and set the tone for a new era of federal politics. Two decades later, it’s worth taking stock of where the movement stands, how it has evolved, and what forces are shaping its trajectory today. With the recent completion of the federal Conservative convention in Calgary and the Ontario PC convention last weekend, and the upcoming Nova Scotia PC Convention this weekend, along with the leadership vote of the PEI conservatives, here are some observations about the current state of the Conservative union.
A snapshot of the landscape:
Institutional Legacy Tracing Back to the Harper Era
The Harper era left a durable imprint on fiscal policy, federal–provincial relations, and the architecture of Canada’s conservative institutions. Many of today’s policy debates, whether they are focused on taxation, resource development, and federal budgetary restraint, still trace their lineage to that period.
A More Fragmented Coalition
The conservative movement now spans a wider ideological spectrum than it did in 2006. Economic conservatives, populist conservatives, social conservatives, and institutional conservatives all coexist under a broader tent, sometimes in alignment and sometimes in tension. Unlike the Harper era, the conservative movement now attracts broad support from young people and organized labour.
Shifting Policy Priorities
Issues that were peripheral in 2006, such as housing affordability, climate adaptation, continental trade volatility, digital governance, now sit at the centre of conservative policy conversations. The movement is navigating how to balance traditional commitments with emerging pressures.
Leadership Dynamics
The movement’s leadership ecosystem has diversified across federal, provincial, and municipal levels. Right leaning governments exist in Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, PEI, Quebec, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. That’s 7 out of 10 provinces with right leaning governments, and a federal party that garnered more votes in the 2025 election than ever before. The different conservative governments and leaders emphasize different strands of the tradition, shaping a more decentralized and regionally varied identity.
Changing Voter Coalitions
Demographic and geographic shifts have altered the movement’s base. Suburban voters, younger families, and blue-collar workers now play a more prominent role in conservative electoral strategy, influencing tone, messaging, and policy emphasis.
The Continental Context
Canada’s conservative movement is also operating within a more turbulent North American environment. Trump’s control of the Republican party in the United States has prompted a realignment of conservatism in the United States, which has complicated the conservative trajectory at home. Now, trade uncertainty, geopolitical realignment, and economic nationalism all shape the strategic choices facing conservative policymakers everywhere.
What You Need to Know?
Twenty years on, the conservative movement in Canada is neither static nor monolithic. It is evolving, adapting, and negotiating its identity in real time. What do you need to know about the future state of the conservative movement in Canada? There are a few headwinds within the conservative movement that are noticeable. Some are new. Some have always been part of the movement. We’ll share 5 big ones.
Getting Along
At the recent Conservative Party of Canada convention in Calgary, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith delivered a high-profile speech in which she endorsed Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and energized grassroots supporters. Her address highlighted key concerns among conservative voters about economic policy, national sovereignty, and democratic values. From the convention floor, the VOSAVIS team observed that this moment also underscored a broader tension within the conservative movement: the simultaneous scheduling of the federal and Ontario party conventions accentuated visible differences between provincial and federal conservative leadership. Notably absent from Calgary were elected representatives from Ontario, where Premier Doug Ford and the federal leader have recently been at odds. Many delegates interpreted this absence as a sign of strategic disconnect, and there was clear discussion among attendees that unresolved disagreements between levels of government could have contributed to broader challenges for the conservative movement in the 2025 federal election.
The Trump Factor
There is a swath of the Canadian conservative movement that admires Trump’s governing of the United States. It is a fact that most Canadians with favourable views of Trump support the Conservative Party of Canada. However, there is an even bigger swath that doesn’t, and this produce’s a schism of what to say and how far to go in the critique. Threading this needle will be difficult, especially as conservatives try to setup a contrast with PM Carney who has more freedom to call out President Trump’s approach to continental and world issues. This invariably boxes the conservatives.
Converting Provincial Success into a National Majority Government
Federal Conservatives gathered in Calgary to review Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, delivering a strong 87 percent endorsement from party delegates. That result confirms internal confidence, but it does not resolve the central challenge ahead: building a broad, winning national coalition capable of translating conservative strength at the provincial level into federal victory. Canada’s conservative landscape is not ideologically uniform. Premiers such as Ford, Legault, Houston, and Wakeman govern from a more centrist posture than counterparts like Smith and Moe in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Navigating these differences will require Poilievre to expand his appeal beyond the party base and speak credibly to voters who prioritize stability, economic security, and institutional competence. To succeed nationally, the leader will need to temper confrontation with reassurance, pairing sharp accountability with a forward-looking message that emphasizes opportunity, confidence, and hope for Canada’s future.
The Rise of Separatist Movements
During his speech to the federal Conservative convention in Calgary, Poilievre told the crowd that separatist movements rise only when Liberals are in power. While true, the risk of separatist movements breaking nationalist and populist supporters away from conservative parties federally and provincially must be taken as a growing concern. Should the CAQ government face electoral defeat during its upcoming election, it is likely that a separatist party wins in that province throwing national unity at the forefront of a very volatile continental and global geo-political landscape. In addition to this, while Ford promised to lead the Ontario PCs to a fourth majority mandate this past weekend, governing longevity often gives way to growing voter fatigue over governments that have had multiple mandates. This problem extends to Premier Houston in Nova Scotia and Premier Moe in Saskatchewan.
Conflict Abroad Craves Unity at Home
As economic and security conflict comes closer to subsuming Canada in ways we have not anticipated in the past, the typical reaction among voters is to be united in the face of external threats, rendering internal contrasts much less important, if not petty. There is an enormous challenge on how to be an effective leader during these turbulent times, which forces leaders of Canada’s provinces to be much more supportive of the federal government than might otherwise be the case. As a consequence, provincial premiers will continue to either tacitly or emphatically endorse the prime minister’s leadership which could further exclude the federal Tory opposition leader, which will make the navigation of the political terrain very tricky in the short term.